Elliott Wave Price Analysis
BVL Peru General Index (PEN) 1-hour: The Peruvian index price is down -16.33% from the 25794.180 all-time high. Not bad considering the negative global sentiment pushing most indices into panic lows. However the indexes price should improve this week before the downtrend continues.
The weekly bar chart has the index topping of Super Cycle Degree (I) at the 25794.180. The implication is that the index is in a major decline which could take the Peruvian economy into a depression. Friday’s debacle of Silicon Valley Bank and Monday’s Signature N.Y. Bank along with the banking crisis developing in the UK confirms this possibility.
All recessions and depressions are preceded by major stock market declines. And the Peruvian General Index Elliott Wave Structure is signaling this possibility.
Notice the move down from the all-time high cut out five Minor Degree waves for Intermediate Degree (1) at the 17547.510 July 2022 low. The preceding rally formed a double zigzag for Intermediate Degree (2).
Despite the US panic this week, the Peruvian financial system isn’t doing that bad so far despite the bearish long term outlook. Volatility is low. Moreover, the fall from Intermediate Degree (2) is subdued. The weekly (14) ADX is ticking at the 16.35 signaling no trade. The indicator needs to be at least 20 for a trend. Additionally, +Di at 22.61 is still above –Di at 20.02 which favors the slow trend to the upside.
However, Intermediate Degree (2) most likely completed with price pushing down below the Fibonacci 61.8% 2vs1. Plus price has fallen through the Cycle Degree lower channel trend line. Technically, this is bearish long term bearish.
Peruvian Index Elliott Wave Update Weekly Bar
Peruvian Index Elliott Wave Update
BVL Peru General Index (PEN) daily chart: The downtrend from the 23315.119 Intermediate Degree (2) progressed in five waves for Minor Degree 1 at the 21456.189 Feb 2023 low. The ensuing corrections is most likely not complete. So, Minute Degree Circled-b could drop a bit before heading up to complete Minute Circled-c. From there, we can expect the downtrend to continue.