US Dollar price USD/PEN ICE and Forcast! The dollar outlook is very bearish agaisnt the Peruvian sol. Below are both the short term and long term forcast for the dollar/sol.
USD/PEN S/3.56; EUR/USD $1.1190; BTC/USD $31,165.00; GOLD $1,959.35; USOIL $76.08
USD/PEN INTRADY FORCAST
This morning USD/PEN ICE at TradeView opened up at S/3.5676, moved up to an intraday high at S/3.5892 and fell back down putting in a new directional low where its trading now at the S/3.5589. As long as the pair stays below the S/3.6008 June 19th low, the forecast is grim for the buck. The dollar needs to get up above the S/3.6008 for any chances of a rebound,
USD/PEN ICE DIALY CHART TRADINGVIEW
Daily momentum is favoring the downside but still weak. Daily ADX (14) is still below the 20 trend signal. Its currently ticking at 17.95. However, -Di is at 20.01 well above +Di which is down at 9.17. This weak daily momentum is due to the buck recently falling out of a consolidation.
WEEKLY ADX (14) USD/PEN ICE
However Weekly the ADX (14) is racing at 30.92. –Di is at 25.26 well above –Di at 6.96. This weekly downside momentum is very strong. Look out below!
FIBONACCI PRICE CONSIDERATIONS
Yesterday the US USD/PEN ICE closed at the day’s low at S/3.5679 losing -1.07% for the day. The dollar/Sol has been on a downward trend since the S/4.1360 Sept 2021 all-time high. Meanwhile the Greenback has lost 13.70%.
After the all-time high the dollar dropped in an impulse to the S/3.622 April 2022 low. From there, the Buck retraced past the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement of the drop form the all-time high but fell short of the 0.786% failing at the S/4.0017 Oct 2022 high. The pair then continued its downtrend falling to yesterday’s low of S/3.56.79.
LONG TERM USD/PEN ELLIOTT WAVE FORCAST
The Elliott Wave structure from the all-time high is either a Primary Degree zigzag corrective or a Primary Degree 1-2-3 series of a larger corrective forming.
USD/PEN ICE WEEKLY BAR TRADINGVIEW
If it’s a zigzag, then the move up from the S/2.5220 April 2013 low is an impulse that is being corrected by this alternate Primary Degree zigzag down from the all-time high. This being the case, we can expect this zigzag to end at either the 100% S/3.5097 CvsA or at the lower channel trend line support (around the 3.46 area). But I do not think this is so.
I am favoring the larger move Primary Degree impulse down for cycle C of the expanding flat. if the all-time high was merely a Cycle Degree-b wave of a large expanding flat correcting the Supercycle Degree (a) or (I) wave at the S/3.6480 Sept 2002 high, then this drop form the 4.13 all-time high would be an impulse C wave of an expanding flat forming now for over 10 years. This move could take USD/PEN lower than the S/3.5220 Aril 2013 low. Expanding flats always retrace more than 100% of their B waves. In this case the pair could hit the S/2.35 area.